Comment: Let’s put this illness into perspective

Friday, 13 February 2009

THERE’s no doubt swine flu (now officially rebranded Influenza A by the World Health Organisation) is a nasty piece of work, with the potential to kill and cause community havoc.

But it’s disturbing that the same element of hysteria - so evident a few years ago in the SARS outbreak - has already crept in to what has otherwise appeared to be a measured and mostly very professional response by health, border protection and other official agencies.

This Chicken Little-like panic reaction could trigger a further drop in consumer confidence, affecting international trade and tourism alike.

We don’t need it. Just recall the claims that were made during and about SARS and what it did to our industry after parts of Asia more or less closed shop.

Already we’re being subjected to claims by economists and other business commentators that economies will falter, people will stop travelling, airlines will collapse, trade will wither and die.

Most of this is sheer speculation.

Irresponsible speculation, too, because even the best informed business people start to believe what they see highlighted by impressive headlines that are repeated in online news services and referred to superficially (and often quite incorrectly) on TV.

Then there’s the general public, ever-willing to believe 10 impossible things before lunch.

We are in an information-rich industry.  That’s usually a boon - most of us could not operate efficiently without a constant info-stream of news, ‘analysis’ and opinion as well as consignment tracking, industry data and trade scuttlebutt.

I’m sure many people - like me - heard about the swine flu outbreak within hours of it becoming public knowledge.

Three or four people even emailed me to draw my attention to it.  As is so often the case, those first reports were less than factually correct, but they set the scene and quickly became accepted as the foundation that all later claims were built on.

While not trying to belittle what could be a serious global health problem, we simply don’t know how bad the problem is.  Many of the deaths may yet be attributed to other causes beside flu.

Even in Australasia, many people die of ‘ordinary’ flu every year, mainly in winter, although some are the result of the flu virus weakening victims’ immune systems, with complications such as pneumonia the actual cause of death.

But even if Influenza A is as deadly as the doomsayers claim, there’s no reason for it to close down trade, weaken economies, keep people shut in their homes or wipe out airline stocks.

Sure, Mexico is going to suffer temporarily - airlines and cruise companies will suspend services, life will go into a sort of suspended animation and the country’s economy will suffer.

But a few positive swabs in Mexico shouldn’t be allowed to close down a vibrant global industry.   - Kelvin King