Anecdotal evidence of air-sea shift, but...
- Friday, 09 February 2007
Air cargo report highlights solid growth and ongoing single-digit market optimism
A REPORT just out has revealed that the air cargo industry grew at a mid-single-digit rate in 2006 — and that global traffic levels are up 36 per cent since the unprecedented decline that took place in 2001.
Other key findings of the report include:
• Interest in freighters is at an all-time high, with a backlog of more 250 large-capacity freighters (new production and converted units).
• International express traffic grew 9.5 per cent in 2006 to reach 2.267 million shipments a day.
• A consolidation trend continues among industry participants, although shippers are showing some resistance to the one-stop-shop concept.
• A continuing substantial expansion of cargo operations by airlines based in China, India and the Middle East.
• High fuel costs remain a major concern for the air freight industry — and there is anecdotal evidence of a shift of some high-value goods from air to ocean delivery - due to increasing air freight prices.
The report — ’International Air Freight and Express Industry Performance Analysis 2006' — by Seattle-based aviation consultants, Air Cargo Management Group (ACMG), claims to provide the only comprehensive ‘quantitative and qualitative’ independent analysis of the US$71 billion global air cargo industry.
“Looking forward, ACMG believes a long-term freight growth rate of six per cent is achievable, leading to significant future growth in air freight traffic and the use of large-capacity freighter aircraft,” said the company’s project director, Robert Dahl.
“The backlog for new and converted widebody freighters stands at over 250 units, which is indicative of the optimism of the companies involved in this industry.”
However, Dahl said ACMG was concerned that high oil prices and uncertainty regarding the globally economy would keep air freight growth at four to six per cent - and only slightly better - at five to seven per cent, in 2008.
The report said trends to watch in the industry in the coming year included continuing consolidation in the airline, express and freight forwarding segments, although shippers were showing resistance to the one-stop-shop, preferring to use multiple suppliers for their global transportation and logistics needs.
Another concern was the potential shift of high-value goods to ocean transport as shippers seek ways to avoid the high fuel surcharges for air freight. “The US domestic market has seen a significant modal shift from air to ground, but a shift from air to ocean has not yet become a major factor for international shipments,” added Dahl.
