ADB revises Asia growth prospects after stronger-than-expected export figures for first quarter

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Wednesday, 23 August 2017

IN an updated review that bodes well for Asia Pacific air cargo, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) believes economic growth prospects in what is known as 'developing Asia' have improved on the back of stronger-than-expected export demand in the first quarter of 2017.

ADB recently upgraded its growth outlook in the region from 5.7 to 5.9 per cent for 2017 and from 5.7 to 5.8 per cent in 2018.

It explained the smaller uptick in the 2018 rate reflected a cautious view on the sustainability of the current export push.

"Developing Asia is off to a good start this year with improved exports pushing growth prospects for the rest of 2017," said Yasuyuki Sawada, (pictured left) ADB's chief economist.

"Despite lingering uncertainties surrounding the strength of the global recovery, we feel that the region's economies are well placed to face potential shocks to the outlook."

By sub-region, growth for East Asia is revised upward to six per cent in 2017 and 5.7 per cent in 2018 from the original projections of 5.8 and 5.6 per cent respectively. After recent growth moderation, an increase in net exports and domestic consumption has improved growth prospects in the People's Republic of China. The world's second largest economy is now expected to expand by 6.7 per cent in 2017 and 6.4 per cent in 2018.

South Asia will remain the fastest growing of all sub-regions in Asia and the Pacific according to the report, with growth on track to meet original projections of seven per cent in 2017 and 7.2 per cent in 2018.  India is expected to achieve previous growth projections of 7.4 per cent in 2017 and 7.6 per cent in 2018, primarily from strong consumption.

Growth projections for Southeast Asia are expected to remain at 4.8 per cent in 2017 and five per cent next year, with accelerating growth for Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore.

Growth in the Pacific is expected to remain at 2.9 per cent in 2017 and 3.3 per cent in 2018, with Papua New Guinea continuing its gradual recovery due to a rebound in mining and agriculture industries.