European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has issued a bullish forecast for strong growth in Asia Pacific citing strong economies, tourism and a propensity to travel driving growth.
The passenger aircraft fleet serving the Australia South Pacific region will grow from some 700 aircraft today to over 1,200 by 2033, with a doubling in the number of wide body aircraft according to its latest Global Market Forecast (GMF).
With aviation growth comparable with other mature markets such as North America and Europe, the region has the world’s highest propensity to travel per capita, Airbus says.
The forecast shows international traffic serving the Australia South Pacific region will grow annually at 4.5 per cent. Traffic to and from neighbouring developing markets will grow even quicker, with traffic to Asia growing at 5.1 per cent, Latin America 6.2 per cent, Africa 6.3 per cent and the Middle East 5.4 per cent, all well above the world average (4.7 per cent).
While the fleet serving the region will increase by 70 per cent, wide body aircraft will more than double from some 290 today to more than 640 by 2033. In 20 years, the passenger fleet serving the region will increase by nearly 500 aircraft. The region’s propensity to travel (over three trips per capita) is almost double that of North America and it will remain the world’s highest at over four trips per capita by 2033. Domestically, traffic to and from Australia’s busiest airports, (Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth) is tipped to double, with an additional 90 million passengers a year by 2033.
Today, some 70 per cent of international traffic is within the wider Asia Pacific region including China (PRC) and this is predicted to grow as it becomes home to 40 per cent of the world’s GDP by 2033. The PRC is Australia’s single biggest export market and increased air links will fuel business and tourism between the two. Today, Chinese travellers name Australia among their top destinations. Forecasts for Australian inbound tourism generally suggest nearly 10 million visitors a year by 2022. Today, 99.7 per cent of these tourists arrive by air, and in the future will increasingly arrive by air.
By 2033, the number of aviation mega-cities globally is predicted to double to 91. Today’s mega cities of Sydney and Melbourne will be joined by Perth, Brisbane and Auckland by 2033. These 91 centres will account for 35 per cent of global GDP with some 95 per cent of all long haul traffic travelling to, from or through them.
Globally, in the next 20 years (2014-2033), according to the forecast, passenger traffic will grow annually at 4.7 per cent driving a need for around 31,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft (100 seats and above) worth US$4.6 trillion. The passenger and freighter fleet will increase from today’s 18,500 aircraft to 37,500 by 2033, an increase of nearly 19,000 aircraft. Some 12,400 older less fuel efficient passenger and freighter aircraft will be retired.
European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has issued a bullish forecast for strong growth in Asia Pacific citing strong economies, tourism and a propensity to travel driving growth.
The passenger aircraft fleet serving the Australia South Pacific region will grow from some 700 aircraft today to over 1,200 by 2033, with a doubling in the number of wide body aircraft according to its latest Global Market Forecast (GMF).
With aviation growth comparable with other mature markets such as North America and Europe, the region has the world’s highest propensity to travel per capita, Airbus says.
The forecast shows international traffic serving the Australia South Pacific region will grow annually at 4.5 per cent. Traffic to and from neighbouring developing markets will grow even quicker, with traffic to Asia growing at 5.1 per cent, Latin America 6.2 per cent, Africa 6.3 per cent and the Middle East 5.4 per cent, all well above the world average (4.7 per cent).
While the fleet serving the region will increase by 70 per cent, wide body aircraft will more than double from some 290 today to more than 640 by 2033. In 20 years, the passenger fleet serving the region will increase by nearly 500 aircraft. The region’s propensity to travel (over three trips per capita) is almost double that of North America and it will remain the world’s highest at over four trips per capita by 2033. Domestically, traffic to and from Australia’s busiest airports, (Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth) is tipped to double, with an additional 90 million passengers a year by 2033.
Today, some 70 per cent of international traffic is within the wider Asia Pacific region including China (PRC) and this is predicted to grow as it becomes home to 40 per cent of the world’s GDP by 2033. The PRC is Australia’s single biggest export market and increased air links will fuel business and tourism between the two. Today, Chinese travellers name Australia among their top destinations. Forecasts for Australian inbound tourism generally suggest nearly 10 million visitors a year by 2022. Today, 99.7 per cent of these tourists arrive by air, and in the future will increasingly arrive by air.
By 2033, the number of aviation mega-cities globally is predicted to double to 91. Today’s mega cities of Sydney and Melbourne will be joined by Perth, Brisbane and Auckland by 2033. These 91 centres will account for 35 per cent of global GDP with some 95 per cent of all long haul traffic travelling to, from or through them.
Globally, in the next 20 years (2014-2033), according to the forecast, passenger traffic will grow annually at 4.7 per cent driving a need for around 31,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft (100 seats and above) worth US$4.6 trillion. The passenger and freighter fleet will increase from today’s 18,500 aircraft to 37,500 by 2033, an increase of nearly 19,000 aircraft. Some 12,400 older less fuel efficient passenger and freighter aircraft will be retired.
